As 2025 hits its stride, many travelers are already dreaming about their next big adventure. And one question keeps popping up: Should I plan a trip to Japan in 2026? With booming tourism, a historically weak yen, and record-breaking crowds in some areas, it’s a valid question.
What did 2024 and 2025 reveal about tourism in Japan?
2024: a record-breaking year
Japan saw a massive return of international tourists in 2024. According to data from JTB (Tourism Research & Consulting), 36.9 million foreign visitors arrived in the country : an increase of 47.1% compared to 2023, continuing the upward trend that began in 2022.
Here’s what fueled the surge:
- Full reopening of borders post-COVID-19
- A strong post-pandemic travel rebound
- Historically weak yen, making Japan an affordable destination
The majority of tourists came from neighboring Asian countries:
| Country | % of visitors |
| China + Hong Kong | 26,2% |
| South Korea | 24% |
| Taïwan | 16,4% |
| USA + Canada | 9,4% |
| France | 1% |
East Asian countries alone accounted for a whopping 66.6% of all visitors—highlighting Japan’s role as a primarily regional destination.
2025: moderate growth, another record expected
Early 2025 trends confirm Japan remains a top destination. Forecasts predict around 15% growth this year, which translates to approximately 42.4 million foreign visitors.
Two main factors are driving this momentum:
- Continued appeal of the weak yen, making Japan cost-effective
- The 2025 World Expo in Ôsaka (April 13–October 13), drawing in millions more visitors
Why is Japan so attractive right now?
The weak yen: a major advantage for tourists
Since 2022, Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy has driven the yen’s value down significantly.
| Year-end | Average Exchange Rate | Purchasing Power Increase |
|---|---|---|
| - | 1 € = 120 yen | Reference for an equivalent product |
| 2022 | 1 € = 130 yen | +8 % |
| 2023 | 1 € = 160 yen | +35 % |
| 2024 | 1 € = 165 ¥ | +37,5 % |
For European travelers, this means around 35% more purchasing power (not to mention Japan’s low 10% sales tax).
Tourism inflation Is Real, but still reasonable
High demand has led to price increases in certain sectors:
- Hotels: +50 to +100% in major cities (from ~40 € to 80 €)
- Japan Rail Pass: +70% since October 2023
- Museum and temple entry fees: Slightly higher
Even so, Japan remains budget-friendly thanks to efficient public transit, cheap eats (think konbini meals under 5 €), and the ability to travel off-season.
Can Japan handle this many tourists?
The downside of all this popularity? Overcrowding in some hotspots. For example, Kyoto has become so busy that it can feel overwhelming.
To manage the flow, Japan has implemented crowd control measures at popular sites. Mount Fuji now requires a paid permit and has a visitor quota in place since 2024.
What to expect in 2026: growth or stabilization?
Current indicators suggest tourism will plateau in 2026, with expected numbers hovering between 42 and 44 million international visitors. Here’s why:
- The World Expo in Ôsaka will be over
- Economic slowdown in China, Japan’s largest tourist market
- Slight rebound of the yen expected by late 2025 (1 € = 150 yen)
This should ease some pressure on infrastructure and make travel a bit more pleasant in 2026.
Will travel costs rise in 2026?
Even if the yen stays weak, prices in Japan are projected to rise in 2026, especially for accommodations and popular attractions in major cities.
Airfare is also expected to increase due to environmental taxes in Europe and overall inflation. According to IATA:
- +12% airfare increase from 2023 to 2024
- An additional +10% increase projected for 2025-2026
Book early and consider flights with layovers to save up to 30% on airfare.
Is Japan changing its tourist policies?
Yes : starting November 2026, the immediate Tax-Free system will end. Right now, tourists can enjoy 10% off on purchases over 5,000 ¥ (about 30 €) directly in stores. From November 1, 2026, tax refunds will only be available at the airport with proof of purchase.
Also, starting in 2028, Japan will roll out a mandatory electronic visa system called JESTA (Japan Electronic System for Travel Authorization), modeled after the U.S. ESTA. It will likely include a fee and must be completed before entry.
Good news: No visa is required for European travelers in 2026, just a valid passport!
So, should you visit Japan in 2026?
Yes and here’s why:
- Fewer crowds thanks to the end of the World Expo
- Last chance to benefit from the in-store Tax-Free system
- Still a favorable exchange rate, offering around 25% more purchasing power than in Europe
Travel smart: Aim for May-June or September-October, and get off the beaten path. Rural Japan is full of stunning, train-accessible gems waiting to be explored.
